Spatial Modeling of Leprosy Disease in East Java Province with Spatially Varying Regression Coefficients Models

Indonesia ranks third with the most leprosy cases globally. East Java is the province that has the highest leprosy cases. The Provincial Government socialized the East Java Leprosy Eradication Program, which targets a maximum of one leprosy case per 10,000 residents. We propose spatially varying regression coefficients models to evaluate the effects of risk factors on of leprosy cases in East Java, use Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression and Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) models. The best models GWNBR categorize municipalities into six groups based on variables that have a significant impact on leprosy cases. The percentage of households with access to adequate sanitation is a significant factor in determining leprosy cases in all municipalities in East Java. We can conclude that clean and healthy living behavior, health facilities, and health workers significantly affect the number of leprosy cases in East Java.

Crimen y fútbol: caso del fútbol profesional colombiano (2010-2016) / Crime and football: case of Colombian professional football (2010-2016) / Crime e soccer: caso do soccer profissional Colombian (2010-2016)

Resumen Este trabajo investiga mediante la metodología de regresión binomial negativa de ceros inflados con efectos fijos la relación entre los partidos de fútbol de la liga profesional colombiana y el número de lesiones personales, hurtos y homicidios (en un intervalo de ocho horas) presentados en veinte (20) ciudades de Colombia durante los años 2010-2016. Los resultados no evidencian una relación sistemática entre los partidos de fútbol y los delitos mencionados (es decir, aumentos o disminuciones de los delitos en una ciudad por el hecho de ser sede de un partido de fútbol o ser la ciudad del equipo visitante). Lo que sí evidencian es que hay aumentos en las lesiones personales y hurtos a personas a medida que aumenta la asistencia al estadio. La asistencia no parece tener efecto sobre los homicidios. No obstante lo anterior, los aumentos de lesiones personales y hurtos a personas no parecen ser económicamente significativos para el periodo de ocho horas dentro del cual se jugó el partido ni a nivel agregado anual para las veinte ciudades.

Abstract This paper investigates throgh the methodology of negative zero inflated with effects binomial regression relationship between Colombian profesional football games league and the number of personal injury, theft and homicide (in an interval of eight hours) presented in twenty (20) cities in Colombia during the years 2010 - 2016. The results do not show a systematic relationship between football matches and the aforementioned crimes (that means, increase or decrease in crimes in a city due to the fact of hosting a football match or being the city of the visiting team). What they do show, is that there are increases in personal injuries and theft of people as stadium attendane increases. Notwithstanding the foregoing, increases in personal injury and theft form people do not appear to be economically significant for the eigth - hour period within which the game was played nor annual at an aggregate level for the twenty cities.

Resumo Este trabalho investiga mediante a metodologia de regressão binomial negativa de zeros inflacionados com efeitos fixos a relação entre os partidos de futebol da liga profissional colombiana e o número de lesões coporais, furtos e homicídios (num intervalo de oito horas) apresentados em vinte (20) cidades da Colômbia durante os anos 2010- 2016. Los resultados no evidenciam uma relação sistemática entre os partidos de futebol e os delitos mencionados (isto é, aumentos ou diminuições dos delitos numa cidade pelo fato de ser sede de uma partida de futebol ou ser a cidade da equipe visitante). O que sim evidenciam é que há aumentos nas lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas a medida que aumenta a assistência ao estádio. A assistência no pareceter efeito sobre os homicídios. Não obstante o que precede, os aumentos de lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas não parecem ser económicamente significativos para o período de oito horas dentro do qual se jogou a partida nem a nível agregado anual para as vinte cidades.

Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model / 中华流行病学杂志

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio (PR) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application,we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software.The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant's risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13％ increase of medical care-seeking.Meanwhile,we compared the differences in PR's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1:not adjusting for the covariates;model 2:adjusting for duration of caregivers' education,model 3:adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model.The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95％CI:1.005-1.265),1.128(95％CI:1.001-1.264)and 1.132(95％CI:1.004-1.267),respectively.Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95％ CI:1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95％ CI:1.051-1.203),respectively,but the model 3 was misconvergence,so COPY method was used to estimate PR,which was 1.125 (95％CI:1.051-1.200).In addition,the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model,but they had a good consistency in estimating PR.Therefore,bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model / 中华流行病学杂志

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio (PR) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application,we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software.The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant's risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13％ increase of medical care-seeking.Meanwhile,we compared the differences in PR's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1:not adjusting for the covariates;model 2:adjusting for duration of caregivers' education,model 3:adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model.The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95％CI:1.005-1.265),1.128(95％CI:1.001-1.264)and 1.132(95％CI:1.004-1.267),respectively.Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95％ CI:1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95％ CI:1.051-1.203),respectively,but the model 3 was misconvergence,so COPY method was used to estimate PR,which was 1.125 (95％CI:1.051-1.200).In addition,the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model,but they had a good consistency in estimating PR.Therefore,bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Regresiones aplicadas al estudio de eventos discretos en epidemiología / Regressions applied to the study of discrete events in epidemiology

En este manuscrito se revisan algunos aspectos básicos de la utilización de regresiones en los estudios epidemiológicos, haciendo énfasis en aquellas aplicadas al estudio de eventos discretos. De esta manera se hace una introducción a los modelos lineales generalizados, cuya estructura es una extensión de una ecuación lineal para analizar desenlaces discretos. De este modo podemos estimar medidas de asociación como la razón de tasas usando la regresión de Poisson, o bien, el riesgo relativo (o la razón de prevalencias) usando la regresión log-binomial. En cada caso es esencial conocer la naturaleza de la variable dependiente, su distribución y reconocer las limitaciones de cada una de las herramientas de análisis.

Some basic aspects about using regressions in epidemiological studies are reviewed. Particularly, this manuscript focused on those applied to the study of discrete events. Generalized lineal models, such as Poisson and log-binomial, have a structure that is an extension of a lineal equation to analyze discrete outcomes. Thus, we can estimate association measures as the incidence rate ratio, using the Poisson regression, or the relative risk (or prevalence ratio), using log-binomial regression. In each case it is essential to know the nature of the dependent variable, as well as, its distribution and recognize the limitations of each analysis tool.

Unions, Health and Safety Committees, and Workplace Accidents in the Korean Manufacturing Sector

BACKGROUND: Despite the declining trend of workplace accidents in Republic of Korea, its level is still quite high compared with that in other developed countries. Factors that are responsible for high workplace accidents have not been well documented in Republic of Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of unions and health and safety committees on workplace accidents in Korean manufacturing firms. We also allow for the interactions between unions and health and safety committees in the analysis. The results obtained in this paper will not only contribute to the literature in this field, but might also be useful for employers and worker representatives who are trying to find an effective way to reduce workplace accidents. METHODS: This paper utilizes the 2012 Occupational Safety and Health Trend Survey data, which is a unique data set providing information on workplace injuries and illness as well as other characteristics of participatory firms, representative of the manufacturing industry in Republic of Korea. RESULTS: In estimating the effects of unions and health and safety committees, we build a negative binomial regression model in which the interactions between unions and health and safety committees are permissible in reducing workplace accidents. CONCLUSION: Health and safety committees were found to reduce the incidence of accidents whereas unionized establishments have higher incidence of accidents than nonunionized establishments. We also found that health and safety committees can more effectively reduce accidents in nonunionized establishments. By contrast, nonexclusive joint committees can more effectively reduce accidents in unionized establishments.

The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index (BI), and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature (Tave), previous month's minimum temperature (Tmin), and Tave were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's Tmin and DF incidence.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Mosquito density, Tave, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.</p>

Regional Disparities of Suicide Mortality by Gender / 보건행정학회지

BACKGROUND: Suicide is one of important health problems in Korea. Previous studies showed factors associated with suicide in individual levels. However, suicide was influenced by society that individuals belong to, so it was required to analyze suicide in local levels. The purpose of this study was to analyze the regional disparities of suicide mortality by gender and the association between local characteristics and suicide mortality. METHODS: This study included 229 city.county.district administrative districts in Korea. Age- and sex-standardized suicide mortality and age-standardized suicide mortality (male/female) were used as dependent variables. City.county.district types, socio-demographics (number of divorces per 1,000 population, number of marriages per 1,000 population, and single households), financial variable (financial independence), welfare variable (welfare budget), and health behavior/status (perceived health status scores and EuroQol-5 dimension [EQ-5D]) were used to represent the local characteristics. We used hot-spot analysis to identify the spatial patterns of suicide mortality and negative binomial regression analysis to examine factors affecting suicide mortality. RESULTS: There were differences in distribution of suicide mortality and hot-spot regions of suicide mortality by gender. Negative binomial regression analysis provided that city.county.district types (city), number of divorces per 1,000 population, financial independence, and EQ-5D had significant influences on the age- and sex-standardized suicide mortality per 100,000. Factor influencing suicide mortality was the number of divorces per 1,000 population in both male and female. CONCLUSION: Study results provided evidences that suicide mortality among regions was differed by gender. Health policy makers will need to consider gender and local characteristics when making policies for suicides.

Influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization in children,Wuxi city,Jiangsu province,2005-2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To estimate the rates due to influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization in children aged 0-14 years in Wuxi city,Jiangsu province in 2005-2010. Methods We collected data on hospitalization due to influenza,pneumonia and other respiratory diseases from fourteen 2nd level or above hospitals in Wuxi,as well as data on influenza virological surveillance in southern China to fit the negative binomial regression models,to estimate the rate on influenza-associated-excess hospitalization. Results During 2005-2010,an average annual hospitalization rate appeared as 91.6‰(79.2‰-99.3‰). Among the total hospitalization eases,respiratory diseases accounted for 54.2%,while both influenza and pneumonia accounted for 38.1%. The average annual influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization rates due to influenza and pneumonia appeared as 1.28‰(95%CI:0.29‰-4.84‰),while 2.18‰(95%CI:0.61‰-6.79‰) due to respiratory diseases. In 2009,A(H1N1)pdm induced influenza pandemic caused 993 excess hospitalizations due to influenza/pneumonia and 1 042 excess hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases,with rates as 1.14‰ and 1.20‰ respectively. Conclusion Both seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1)pdm influenza caused considerable burden on hospitalization in children aged 0-14 years in Wuxi.

Influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization in children,Wuxi city,Jiangsu province,2005-2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To estimate the rates due to influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization in children aged 0-14 years in Wuxi city,Jiangsu province in 2005-2010. Methods We collected data on hospitalization due to influenza,pneumonia and other respiratory diseases from fourteen 2nd level or above hospitals in Wuxi,as well as data on influenza virological surveillance in southern China to fit the negative binomial regression models,to estimate the rate on influenza-associated-excess hospitalization. Results During 2005-2010,an average annual hospitalization rate appeared as 91.6‰(79.2‰-99.3‰). Among the total hospitalization eases,respiratory diseases accounted for 54.2%,while both influenza and pneumonia accounted for 38.1%. The average annual influenza-associated-excess-hospitalization rates due to influenza and pneumonia appeared as 1.28‰(95%CI:0.29‰-4.84‰),while 2.18‰(95%CI:0.61‰-6.79‰) due to respiratory diseases. In 2009,A(H1N1)pdm induced influenza pandemic caused 993 excess hospitalizations due to influenza/pneumonia and 1 042 excess hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases,with rates as 1.14‰ and 1.20‰ respectively. Conclusion Both seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1)pdm influenza caused considerable burden on hospitalization in children aged 0-14 years in Wuxi.

Fatores associados com a mortalidade por suicídio de idosos nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2005-2007 / Factors associated with suicide mortality among the elderly in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2007

Este trabalho teve como objetivo realizar análise ecológica sobre suicídio de pessoas com 60 anos ou mais nos municípios brasileiros no triênio 2005-2007, investigando-se fatores associados ao evento. Foram utilizados dados referentes aos óbitos por suicídio extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM), códigos X60 a X86 e Y87.0 (CID-10). Foram ajustados modelos de regressão de Poisson, binomial negativa e binomial negativa inflacionada de zeros (ZINB). Este último exibiu os melhores resultados quando da comparação de modelos. Foram identificados como fatores associados ao suicídio: proporção de não brancos (associação negativa), taxa de internação por transtornos de humor (associação positiva) e razão de sexo (associação negativa).

This scope of this paper was to conduct an ecological analysis of suicide mortality of people aged 60 years or more in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2007, by investigating factors associated with the event. Data on suicide deaths were extracted from the Mortality Information System, codes X60 to X86 and Y87.0 (ICD-10). Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were adjusted. The latter exhibited the best results when comparing models. The proportion of non-whites (negative association), the rate of hospitalization for mood disorders (positive association) and sex ratio (negative association) were identified as factors associated with suicide.

Application of zero-inflated models on regression analysis of count data: a study of sub-health symptoms / 中华流行病学杂志

To explore the goodness of fit about the zero-inflated (ZI) models in analyzing data related to sub-health symptoms in which the counts are non-negative integers. ZI models are conducted with Stata 11.0. The coefficient of a, Vuong test, O test and likelihood test are used to compare the goodness of fit for ZI models with the common used models such as passion model,negative binomial model. When a is 0.939, and the Z statistic of Vuong test is 32.08, P＜0.0001,which shows that there are too many zeros. The mean number of sub-health symptoms is 2.90, s=3.85, 0=308.011, P＜0.001, s2＞(-x), indicating that the data are over-dispersed. In addition, the optimum goodness of fit is found in zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model with the largest log likelihood and the smallest AIC. ZINB seems the optimal model to study those over-dispersed count data with too many zeros.

Study on injuries and ways of coping to them among primary and middle school students in one rural area of Anhui province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To describe the current epidemiological characteristics of injuries among primary and middle school students in one rural area of Anhui province and to explore the relationship between the ways of coping and related injuries.Methods Through cluster sampling methods,all students from 3 to 9 grades in 5 primary schools and 3 middle schools in Changfeng county of Anhui province were investigated with questionnaire.All participants completed an anonymous questionnaire concerning their experiences with injuries during the 12 months preceding the survey.The ways of coping to injuries were evaluated by Trait Coping Style Questionnaire.Factors associated with injuries were identified using a negative binomial regression analysis.Results Of 2917 students,the annual event-based rate of injuries was 17.4 per 100 students.Positive coping score had no significant differences between the injury and non-injury groups (33.98 ± 6.38 vs.33.66 ± 6.37) (t=0.979,P=0.328).The score of negative coping style was higher in injury group than in non-injury group (27.65 ± 7.79 vs.26.54 ± 7.62) (t=2.775,P=0.006).Statistically,the annual injury rates were significantly different in three groups on their negative styles of coping (x2=6.131,P=0.013 ).Data from the multivariable negative binomial regression analysis,after adjusted for demographic characteristics,showed no significant difference on the relationship between positive coping style and injury incidence.Those with moderate negative style of coping had lower risks compared to those with highly negative one (IRR＝0.77,95％ CI:0.63-0.94).Conclusion Negative ways of coping was an important risk factor for injuries.Data from our research suggested that psychological preventive measure need to be taken to improve the style of coping.It was also important to promote the related personality development in planning the strategies for future prevention on injuries.

Clustering of psychiatric and somatic illnesses in the general population: multimorbidity and socioeconomic correlates

The distribution of psychiatric disorders and of chronic medical illnesses was studied in a population-based sample to determine whether these conditions co-occur in the same individual. A representative sample (N = 1464) of adults living in households was assessed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 1.1, as part of the São Paulo Epidemiological Catchment Area Study. The association of sociodemographic variables and psychological symptoms regarding medical illness multimorbidity (8 lifetime somatic conditions) and psychiatric multimorbidity (15 lifetime psychiatric disorders) was determined by negative binomial regression. A total of 1785 chronic medical conditions and 1163 psychiatric conditions were detected in the population concentrated in 34.1 and 20 percent of respondents, respectively. Subjects reporting more psychiatric disorders had more medical illnesses. Characteristics such as age range (35-59 years, risk ratio (RR) = 1.3, and more than 60 years, RR = 1.7), being separated (RR = 1.2), being a student (protective effect, RR = 0.7), being of low educational level (RR = 1.2) and being psychologically distressed (RR = 1.1) were determinants of medical conditions. Age (35-59 years, RR = 1.2, and more than 60 years, RR = 0.5), being retired (RR = 2.5), and being psychologically distressed (females, RR = 1.5, and males, RR = 1.4) were determinants of psychiatric disorders. In conclusion, psychological distress and some sociodemographic features such as age, marital status, occupational status, educational level, and gender are associated with psychiatric and medical multimorbidity. The distribution of both types of morbidity suggests the need of integrating mental health into general clinical settings.

Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Methods Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct. , 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST)were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. Results The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: Ⅰ(monthly, unit:1/1 000 000) = exp( - 1. 672 - 0. 399 × LST). Conclusion Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.